The National Biodiesel Board has officially recommended at least 5.25bn gallons of advanced biofuels for 2018 and at least 2.75bn gallons of biomass-based diesel for 2019, commenting that the recommended figures are realistic, attainable and justifiable.
The increases in recommended volumes seem less realistic to the industry compared with the annual growth volume during the past few years however, leading market participants to question the assumptions being used to determine the volume growth recommendations.
A proposed 2.75bn gallons of biomass based diesel RVO in 2019 would lead the industry to achieve a 650mn gallon annual increase from 2018 to 2019, representing a substantial rise compared with the 100mn gal growth from 2017 to 2018. Similarly, advanced biofuel would grow by 970mn gal (23pc) from 17’ to 18’, compared with the 670mn gal increase from 16’ to 17’. Concerns regarding the supply sources to meet the huge jumps hover, as the Argentina anti-dumping case is likely to leave the imported market share in uncertainty, and it is difficult to reach a necessarily corresponding increase from the domestic supply side. Also usually the industry prefers to plan carrying over more RINs into next year to prepare for any shortfall, thus bringing additional challenges.