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Mid-day verdict expected on biodiesel import arbs

The EU’s Trade Defence Committee is meeting this morning to deliver its verdict on the Commission’s 4 June proposal to slash anti-dumping duties on Indonesian and Argentinian biodiesel. By “lunchtime” today the European biodiesel industry should have a clearer idea on its near term fundamentals after four years in which millions of tonnes of South American and Southeast Asian biodiesel have remained locked out of the world’s largest biodiesel market.

Current market economics show a hefty arbitrage window open to Argentinian exporters through the start of Q4 if the Commission’s proposed duty cuts stand.

Prices further forward are less promising for Argentinian exporters with the arbitrage marked closed for Q4 assuming a 7% average restructured anti-dumping rate applied across the industry, although opportunity could still be open to exporters awarded smaller anti-dumping duty schedules according to the European Commission’s 4 July schedule.

MS -27/07/2016

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