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Brazilian producers look to build stocks as production nears seasonal droop

The Ulsan market continued its upward trend on Friday, with the PRIMA spot Ulsan b-grade index now sitting at 545USD/m3. Offers were put forward in the Ulsan market at 580USD/m3 FOB for November or December loading. Buyers are experiencing a shortage of available cargoes and Brazilian producers are now trying to boost inventory levels in anticipation of continued high domestic demand. This has increased buyers’ acceptance of higher Brazilian prices, now putting value at 560USD/m3 for shipments CFR Ulsan at the start of 2016.

Domestic and foreign sales in Brazil of hydrous ethanol for September are up 42% and 74% YoY respectively, although production has only risen 1%. Despite this, a proxy calculation for stock levels would show stocks for the 2015/16 harvest season in Brazil till September sitting up 1.5% YoY at roughly 19,387,734m3, although a huge hike in domestic demand in October has created concern over the availability of product as the sugar harvesting season will soon begin to slow down.

A trend has been seen of imports of South African denatured industrial ethanol into South Korea, with a small shipment of 1,115m3 in September, and similarly sized small shipments seen in June and July. South Korean imports of industrial ethanol have been falling from one year highs of 16,378m3 in July to 11,006m3 in September.

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