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Americas Asia Ethanol US

Beijing buzzing on expected ethanol demand growth

Spot discussion in Ulsan B Grade ethanol remained constrained with most of the market attending meetings in Beijing. In the wider market, US prices moved higher on the back of rising corn prices. Despite continued weakness in the Real, Brazilian offers also firmed. Widely anticipated growth in Chinese ethanol demand is generating a buzz among regional participants at this week’s ethanol forum in Beijing, with some shipments of fuel ethanol from the US already reported en route and other possibilities in discussion. The US is seen as the most likely supplier of swing corn-based ethanol to meet incremental Asian demand given the flexibility of the US distillery fleet to increase capacity. Brazilian ethanol meanwhile is seen in greater demand into the US to benefit from strong California carbon ticket prices and D5 RIN values nationwide. Growth in other Asian markets is also on the horizon, with talk of the Philippines blending mandate rising from 10% to 20% in the coming years, opening up potential for further imports as domestic production remains heavily dependent on constrained feedstock availability. Blending in India is tipped to rise from the current 3% to a targeted 10%, which is being backed by state oil companies for the first time.

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