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Biodiesel Energy Ethanol US

EIA predict stronger YoY biofuels consumption, while tempering expected US crude output decline

This was the last PRIMA US Weekly Fuel Data Report issued. The new report is scheduled for release next week and you can get it by emailing [email protected]


EIA detailed their outlook for liquid biofuels in its monthly short term energy outlook for the US published earlier this week, stating that the largest effect of the new RFS targets for 2017 will be seen in biomass-based diesel consumption, although ethanol consumption is also expected to increase YoY. Biodiesel production is forecasted to rise 21% YoY by the end of 2016 to 99,000bbl/d and again by 3% YoY in 2017 to 102,000bbl/d. Meanwhile, net imports of biomass-based diesel are expected to reach 43,000bbl/d in 2016 and 47,000bbl/d in 2017, climbing 48% and 9% YoY respectively.

According to EIA, US ethanol production is forecasted to climb 2% YoY in 2016 to an average of 990,000bbl/d. US ethanol consumption is also expected to increase, rising 2% YoY to reach 930,000bbl/d. Total gasoline consumption is estimated to have increased 1.9% and 1.5% respectively in Q2 and Q3 2016, seeing fuel ethanol blending with gasoline also increase 1.9% YoY in both Q2 and Q3 this year. US ethanol prices climbed higher Thursday following EIA reporting a 2.4% WoW dip in US ethanol production to 998Mbbl/d, with a draw from stocks of 272Mbbl. US corn prices also climbed higher ahead of Monday’s monthly WASDE report on corn supply and demand estimates.

The YoY decline in US crude oil production was softened in September’s report, with expectations for 2016 output rising from last month’s 8.73mn bbl/d to 8.77mn bbl/d, and the 2017 outlook rising from 8.31mn bbl/d to 8.51mn bbl/d. Although 2016 production is still expected to drop 6% YoY improved drilling efficiency and an increase in the number of rigs drilled is expected to see a less severe decline in US crude oil production than previously expected, news sources reported on Wednesday. US crude oil stockpiles fell by 14,513Mbbl last week according to the latest EIA report, the largest stock draw in 17 years, driven by a 21% drop in imports due to Tropical Storm Hermine disrupting shipments.


NB 9/9/2016

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