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Agriculture Americas US

US bean sellers eye 2015/2016 sales prospects with trepidation

  • As the end of the US 2014/15 soybean harvest season approaches, US soybean exports are on track to meet USDA full year predictions of 49.67mn t and soybean oil exports at 890,000t, according to the latest US export sales report. Soybean exports for the end of this harvest season were up over 100% WoW to 401,000t, leaving total exports for 2014/15 so far at 49.2 mn t. Soybean oil exports for this week were at 44,000t, up from last week’s 15,900t, leaving total exports sitting at 862,000t for the current marketing year. USDA’s 2015/16 predictions of soybean exports are down to 46mn t, reflecting low sales commitments to date. Sales commitments for the new harvest year are at just 850,400t and 1,800t for soybeans and soybean oil respectively, down 43% and 64% YoY. US soybean exports to China sat at only 127,700t this week, following cancelations earlier this month, indicating how a worsening macro-economic is affecting overseas demand. Chinese August PMI has hit its lowest level since 2009, reinforcing indications of a slowdown in Chinese growth.

 

  • Lost market share to South American rivals is also taking its toll on US soybean exporters’ prospects in the new crop year. Argentinian soybean exports remain sharply up on year-ago levels, although the pace of sales is slowing. YtD exports are up 50% YoY at 8mn t, but still down from a YoY gain of nearer 60% only a few weeks ago. Argentinian soybean exports are expected to reach 9.75mn t in 2015/16, according to the latest WASDE report, and will exceed this considerably if they maintain current momentum. Brazil’s 2015/16 soybean export expectations sit at 54.5mn t, according to the most recent WASDE report. Brazilian soybean exports were up 40% MoM for July, sitting at 8.44mn t, and Brazil’s soybean oil exports are currently sitting at 92,000t this year.

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