EU grain trade association COCERAL has pegged the EU28 2016 rapeseed crop at 21.56mn t in its first projection for the coming harvest, down from the 21.8mn t the body estimates for the 2015 harvest following an upward revision from its December projection.
Coceral in December pegged the 2015 harvest at 21.487mn t, down from 24.4mn t in 2014. Coceral expects just 6.39mn ha to be planted to rape across the EU 28 this year, down from 6.46mn ha in 2015 and 6.7mn ha in 2014. Yields have also crashed, slumping from 3.64t/ha to 3.38t/ha in 2015 and an estimated 3.37t/ha this year.
The European Commission’s own figures from an update earlier this week pegged the 2016/2017 rapeseed harvest at an even lower 21.287mn t, with a 3.2t/ha yield forecast slashing expected output despite a nearly 6% expansion in forecast hectareage. Despite the reduced domestic rapeseed output, EC dropped its forecast for rapeseed imports into the EU for 2016/2017 to 3.16mn t from 3.6mn t a year earlier.
Expectations for an effectively flat 2016 rapeseed harvest leave the EU treading a middle ground between expanded US and South American soybean harvest expectations and downgraded palm output forecasts.
MS – 11/03/2016